Gaming out the end of US democracy

It is long past time that we stop assuming that, and acting as if, the US will stay a democracy forever. Democracy requires maintenance and renewal, and can be ended, which is exactly the plan by those who control the Republican party right now. They have different reasons for wanting to end democracy but the big ones are, wanting to avoid jail for all the crimes they have committed, taking money from the government, and the personal satisfaction and safety of a lifetime of unchecked power. They don't believe that other citizens are or should be equal to them.

Democracy is many things and is always worth a longer discussion. It is not simply two wolves and a lamb voting on what's for dinner. But for the purposes of this discussion, let's use this definition, "The current leadership will allow the Democrats, if they successfully turnout their voters, to win the midterm election on Tuesday 3 November 2026" The Republican majority in the US House and Senate is narrow, and looking at history, it is extremely likely that control of congress would change in this midterm election making things dangerous and unpleasant for the current leadership. For the reasons above, I think they plan not to allow for this possibility. If that's the case, then how could they prevent it?

It's impossible to ever get complete clarity on motives and goals, but looking at them will help us in this case to understand the plan. In general, Democrats focus on winning candidate campaigns. They have a whole machine, filled to the brim with consultants, data, software, advisors, but most of all, fundraising, to support candidates' campaigns. This goal or way of operating presumes that any given election will be fair. And the Democrats always seem to be surprised and frustrated when things once again happen that they believe are unfair.

The Republicans on the other hand focus on taking and keeping power in whatever way they can. They worry much less about individual candidates and campaigns. They have a much better national communication infrastructure, a focus on the judiciary at all levels, and a coordinated long term plan rather than rebuilding zillions of individual "campaigns" that must be rebuilt every two years. Republicans focus on any and every opportunity to take or keep power, not just even year November elections. More and more their focus on getting and keeping power, is conceived and executed at any cost, and includes breaking the law, for example the events of 6 January 2021.

Internationally, there is enormous experience with subverting elections, and many methods. But there is one major change since let's say the 90's. In elections then, often the subversion was at the national level and there would be one particular method, for example stuffing the ballot box, or some other often ham-fisted way to do it. If or when exposed, it was obviously centralized and was easy to see on election day or at the count. These days, those who cheat, particularly when they already control the state, tend to use as many different methods as possible in as many places as possible, at different times, to decentralize and defuse, in order to keep the other side guessing. Using many methods in many places is now an integral part of election subversion. Digital communication makes that much easier.

If my hypothesis is correct, then the Republican leadership just wants to keep power however they can. In a democracy, the law may be an impediment to that, so they change the law when they can, or appoint loyal judges reinterpret that law. Or they legislate unfair laws. But, when subverting the popular will, they favor tactics that do not break the law where possible simply because it is safer not to break the law, not for any allegiance to the law. But they are absolutely willing to break the law when they need to in order to keep or take power.

There are several broad categories of ways the popular will can be prevented from taking power, 1) dilution, 2) difficulty, 3) distribution, 4) discouragement, 5) deceit, 6) decisions, and 7) deployment.

Dilution is simple, it's gerrymandering, just making Democrats' votes worth less. Fairly easy to fix, but the Supreme Court won't get involved because it favors Republicans. Tons of methods, but software is now such that a state legislature just tell a computer, "draw boundaries to elect as many of us and as few of them as possible" and it will do it. REDMAP is an example.

Difficulty means making it difficult to register or to vote, and actually preventing different groups from voting. There are many many ways to do this at the national, state, county, and precinct level. An example at the national level was the Supreme Court's gutting of the Voting Rights Act in the Shelby County v. Holder case or the Citizens United case. At the state level is the "Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act" in Texas that makes it complicated for married women to update their voter registration if they change their name. At the precinct level, I was once at a college in North Carolina where, a week before election, the college pretended to start renovations where campus voting would have taken place, and moved voting to a site a mile away. When busses came to take students to vote, the police would not allow them to park where the students had been told the busses would be.

Keep in mind that many of these things are "legal". Even if they got court, it will be well after the election and no matter what the decision, the seats have been allocated. It seems obvious but is increasingly worth noting that the GOP leadership decides on legislative initiatives to make registering and voting difficult for Democrats and supplies relevant legal language to all levels of legislatures down to town councils.

Distribution is the movement of supplies including ballots to or from stations, or any other logistical glitch or excuse. Although mail delivery has slowed and become much less reliable since Louis DeJoy took over the US Postal Service in May 2020, still 99 million out of 154 million ballots cast in the 2024 election were mailed in, or 64%. There have been moves by executive order for the president to directly take over the postal system.

Discouragement is in my opinion the main method the Republicans used to win the presidency in 2016 and 2024. They ran massive digital campaigns to micro-targeted Democrats to discourage them from voting. It worked. Democratic campaigns ignore Republican voters. But Republican campaigns very much focus on discouraging likely Democratic voters from voting, via much superior data and digital communication methods than those of the Democrats. Discouraging Democrats from voting was the basis of the Cambridge Analytica efforts of Bob and Bekah Mercer and the Kremlin in 2016, also of Peter Thiel's Senate campaign in Ohio in 2022 to get JD Vance in the US Senate, as well as the $272 million spent by Elon Musk in 2024.

Musk by the way, is doing the same thing now. Currently, progressives control the Wisconsin Supreme Court 4-3; But a retirement of a progressive judge on the court means an election on 1 April. Musk is pouring money into the campaign targeted at progressives. Those who sympathize with Israel get ads about the progressive candidate's support for Arab causes; those who support Palestine will see ads about her support for Israel, those who worry about migration will get ads about her support for migrants, etc. The only goal is to get some of those who see it and would vote Democratic, not to vote. It works. This is why ten million people who voted for Biden in 2020 didn't bother to vote this past November.

Deceit means putting people in place who will lie if told to, if that becomes necessary for the Republicans to hold power. A good example are the fake electors of 2020 who submitted fraudulent certificates of ascertainment in seven swing states. So if all else fails these people are in place to do what they are told and to lie about the results of elections. This can take place at all levels and includes people who will slow down voting and counts at the precinct or county level if so instructed.

Decisions that affect elections are often made by courts. Republicans focus on judicial races for this reason, like the upcoming one in Wisconsin. Judges supposedly decide based on the law but they have lots of leeway and when legislatures like the US House and Senate have been taken over by loyalty cults, the courts are often the next line of defense for the people's will. That's why the Republicans have been very focused on efforts to control judicial appointments and judicial elections for decades, while the Democrats have simply been surprised, disappointed, and frustrated when appointments and decisions are not fair or impartial. While most election-relevant decisions are judicial, others are made on boards and commissions, for example the Federal Election Commission, school boards, and many many others.

Deployment is the ability to send people with guns to do what you want them to and is the very last resort. In theory those who are given the right by the state or government to be armed and use armed force will obey the law and will not obey illegal orders given by their superiors. But the Republican leadership want to have people in place who will do what they are told even if it is illegal. This is why all the JAG generals in the military have been fired. Different armed forces answer to different parts of the government, the National Guard to Governors, US Marshals to Federal Judges, the police to mayors, and the military to the President. There are scenarios in which they may be given conflicting orders.

In terms of what we can learn and what we can do about all this, the first is to understand that this is how it works now.

The second is for the Democrats to stop doing things as they always have, with a focus mainly on fundraising and confidence that the way to take or keep power is by funding many individual candidate campaigns, mainly every two years.

And third is concentrate efforts to protect Democracy not where you think it is important, for example in swing states, but among your own community, where you live, where you vote, or among voters you know. Volunteer to be a poll worker and encourage others to as well. Find out what your state is doing to protect or damage voting rights and talk to your state rep about it. And most of all, get your friends to vote in every single election, primaries, special elections, and others that are coming up in 2025.

Check here to find out when there is an election where you know somebody and be sure they vote in it.

https://ballotpedia.org/Elections_calendar

Watch the details in election administration and stay relentless!

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