The Rubicon & the Coup

So, it's been crossed. Each American will have different Rubicons, the moment the Supreme Court stopped being a check and balance, the firing of the Inspector Generals, the Citizens United decision, January 6th 2021, and many, maybe most people, aren't even there yet. For me it was the takeover of the federal payment system this past Friday. And keep in mind these top US oligarchs started PayPal, they know how payment systems work and how to use them. Each year, the US government spends about five trillion dollars, in around a billion different payments, all from one single account. It was a very tight system, with extremely robust checks and security. Not now.

For me, knowing the Rubion had been crossed wasn't an intellectual or analytical decision, it was visceral, specifically a feeling of nausea. Now I know, the fascists control the state. You should decide if you think it has happened yet, or if not, what needs to happen for you to get there. And what you will do then. The main thing is not to let me constantly recede into your personal horizon.

Of course all this has been going on for a long time but for me, hadn't passed the point of no return until this past week. People from the US tend to look at a coups as coup d'etat, meaning some excited colonel going on TV and saying they are taking away control from the hapless elected leader. So 1960's! Ours has been a different type of coup, it's been like bankruptcy, gradually then all of a sudden. The reality is that the Republican party has been focused on taking over permanent control of the state for quite a while, very deliberate step by deliberate step. For over fifty years, there has been a growing difference between the two parties in the US in terms of their goals and methods. The Democrats have always just wanted to win competitive elections and have tried different ways to do that, some more successful than others. The Republicans have completed in elections so far as they have needed to, but have gone well beyond that to achieve their main goal, to take state power permanently. The pace of that focus has accelerated since Obama was elected. And went into overdrive with Trump, the Kremlin, and 2016's oligarch Bob Mercer.

Quaintly, but sadly, many Democrats are right now thinking about ways they can once again raise funds for their traditional existential big exciting flurry of activity in October of 2026 so they can win the midterm elections. The number one goal right now of the Republican leadership on the other hand is to keep control of both the House and Senate by any means necessary. And I mean by any means necessary. The translation of the Russian term for this is "political technology"; simply having a clear goal of getting into or staying in power, and taking a cold realistic look what you can and need to do in order to achieve it. The letter of the law or notions of fairness do not enter into it other than maybe some talking points, deflection, and blame. Control of the state will lock in permanent power without having to worry about future elections. Just like Lenin now that I think of it.

Now that they have the Supreme Court, their main method to ensure permanent power will be testing and enforcing loyalty among those who could be a threat to their consolidation of control. The first tested have been the billionaires and they are largely playing ball. Next, as we see, are federal employees; we are in the middle of that. The military officer corps will come soon. These oligarchs have have zillions of gigs of data on each and all of us and are on their way to complete control of the federal government. IRS audits will be a powerful instrument. Being on the receiving end of blackmail and extortion is a powerful incentive.

At the state level, a useful way to group states is where one party controls both houses of the legislature and the governor. According to Ballotpedia, the Democrats have fourteen trifecta states which is about 36.5% of the US population of 340 million. The Republicans have 23 trifecta states which is 41.5% of the US population, and 22% live in the eleven divided states. When it moves to the state level particularly of election administration, will it be blocked? Or will the doors be opened? At the national, but also at the state level, what individual civil servants do? This is the biggest test of our very federal system since the Civil War.

But remember, the fascists are the oligarchs and Republican leadership. The people who voted for them, or who didn't vote, aren't. They have their views and may or may not be attached to a particular side, but be sure they always have an exit ramp that we can helpfully point to. We have a big job to find out with them what we can agree on and to help them frame what is happening.

For us regular people we need to do two types of things. The first is focus, and I mean in our own lives and in our families, to tie up loose ends, to be independent, not to leave things hanging. Loose ends and personal uncertainty is a vulnerability in times like these. Our second job is to come up with a plan of how, in which ways, and areas, and communities, we can fight back.

Do not ignore what is happening and do not get used to it. Stay relentless. It's going to get worse.

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